Retail theft isn’t just a holiday problem anymore.
According to the National Retail Federation’s most recent industry study, retailers reported an 18% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents in 2024 compared to 2023, while threats or acts of violence during theft events rose 17% year over year (National Retail Federation, 2025).
Separate industry reporting shows external theft – including organized retail crime – climbed another 19% between 2023 and 2024 (ASIS International, 2025)
That’s not a small fluctuation. That’s a clear upward trend.
Most businesses expect higher risk during the holidays, but there is another month that deserves attention – and it’s often overlooked.
March.
The overlooked risk window
March doesn’t carry the same reputation as November or December. But from an operational standpoint, it has unique risk factors that can quietly increase retail shrink.
1. Inventory is shifting
For many retailers, March is when winter stock clears out and spring lines move in. Displays get reset. Stockrooms get reorganized. Teams focus on merchandising.
Even in well run stores, this kind of transition stretches attention. And when attention shifts, so does risk.
2. Tax season increases foot traffic
March is also the peak tax refund season. When refunds land, spending rises. That usually means fuller stores and busier teams.
More customers isn’t a problem in itself. But higher foot-fall means more movement, more distraction and more opportunity for opportunistic theft – especially in a year where incidents are already up 18%.
3. March Madness
March Madness pulls in millions of viewers every year. Games are on in bars, staff are checking scores, schedules shift around game times. It creates a simple but important question: If everyone’s watching the game – who’s watching the store?
Retail environments rely on awareness. When focus drifts – even slightly – it creates opportunity.
Theft is changing, and so is the risk
The numbers tell us incidents are rising. But just as important is how they’re changing.
Violence and aggressive behavior during thefts increased 17% last year (NRF, 2025). That shifts the conversation from “loss prevention” to “staff safety”.
It’s no longer just about inventory.
It’s about protecting employees, reducing confrontation, handling incidents quickly and having clear evidence when you need it.
Why traditional setups fall short
Many retailers still rely on on site recording systems that require someone to physically access equipment to pull footage. Reviews happen after the fact. Head office teams rely on store managers to report what happened.
That approach worked when incidents were occasional.
It doesn’t work as well when theft is rising double digits year over year.
If it takes hours – or days – to retrieve footage, confirm events, or share evidence with insurers or law enforcement, the operational cost grows quickly.
And during busy months like March, delays multiply.
From “Do we have cameras?” to “Can we see what’s happening?”
What’s changing now isn’t just how quickly businesses can review footage – it’s how surveillance fits into day-to-day operations.
Proactive surveillance systems are increasingly being used to support staff in the moment, not just document what happened afterward. That might mean live oversight during peak traffic hours, clearer visibility during seasonal resets, or the ability to step in early when behavior starts to look unusual.
The goal isn’t constant monitoring. It’s confidence.
When store teams know support is available and visibility isn’t limited to a locked back office recorder, decision-making improves. Situations can often be de-escalated earlier. Patterns become easier to spot. And accountability is clearer.
March is a quiet stress test
It combines rising national theft trends – up 18% year over year – with operational change, increased foot traffic, and nationwide distraction. None of those factors on their own are dramatic. Together, they create pressure.
And pressure exposes gaps.
Retail theft isn’t slowing down. The data shows that clearly. Incidents are increasing. Aggression is increasing. The cost of delay is increasing.
March may not generate the headlines that the holiday season does, but for many businesses, it’s when routines are disrupted and attention is divided. That’s exactly when resilience matters most.
The question isn’t whether theft will happen – it’s whether your business will know, respond, and recover quickly when it does.
Because when the brackets are filling up and the games are on, retail doesn’t pause.
And someone still needs to be watching the store.
